2022年5年底美联储FOMC议息会议笔记：尘埃落定

he Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong． In support of these goals， the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate． In addition， the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1， as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve‘s Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement．

委员才会寻求在长期内应有利用几倍超过（应有）失业者和2%的大萧条期望。随着中央银行看法的前提收紧，委员才会预料通货膨胀将返回2%的期望，劳工产品将保证较弱。为了背书这些期望，委员才会暂时将联邦信托基金利不下的期望区间增加到0.75%-1%（加息50bps），并预料利不下期望区间的小需求量增加将是前提的。此外，委员才会暂时在6月底1日开始增加其所持的股票市场管理机构、管理机构债务以及MBS，正如与本回应公告同时发布一新闻的《缩短很多公司不动产负债表需求量的蓝图》中才会所述。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy， the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook． The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals． The Committee‘s assessments will take into account a wide range of information， including readings on public health， labor market conditions， inflation pressures and inflation expectations， and financial and international developments．

在量化中央银行的前提看法时，委员才会将之后监测寄送的同期资讯对农业前景的受到影响。如果用到也许致使委员才会期望应有利用的高风险，委员才会将准备亦须变动中央银行的看法。委员才会的量化将重一新考虑相当多的资讯，还包括对公共卫生、劳工产品境况、通货膨胀受压和通货膨胀预计以及股票市场和世界性转型的解读。

缩表细微《缩短很多公司不动产负债表需求量的蓝图》

根据2022年1月底发布一新闻的《缩短很多公司不动产负债表需求量的原则》，委员才会所有参与者都允诺都有大幅增加调高很多公司上市公司所持量的蓝图。

委员才会急于在很久内以可数据分析的形式增加很多公司的上市公司所持量，主要是通过变动从系统公开产品账户（SOMA）中才会所持的上市公司还款抵押后的再进一步融资保证金。自6月底1日起，从SOMA中才会所持的上市公司的还款抵押将在超过每月底时限（caps）的前提下展开再进一步融资。

对于股票市场管理机构，起初的时限将被设定为每月底300亿美元，三个月底后将减低到每月底600亿美元。在此月底度时限下，股票市场管理机构所持量的升高将限于票息美债，如果当月底到期的票息债高于所设定的月底度时限，则限于短期美债。

对于管理机构债务和MBS，起初的时限将设定为每月底175亿美元，三个月底后将减低到每月底350亿美元。

随着一段时间的推移，委员才会急于将上市公司所持量保证在其充裕的股票市场资产体制中才会高效并有效地执行中央银行所需的补贴一新。

为了确保顺畅过渡，委员才会急于在股票市场资产程度略高于其推论的与充沛股票市场资产相相反的程度时，减缓并中断不动产负债表需求量的升高。

一旦不动产负债表中断缩表，股票市场资产也许才会之后升高很久，突显出一新其他很多公司负债项目的高企，直到委员才会推论其股票市场资产位处充沛的程度。

便，委员才会将根据只能来管理上市公司所持量，以在很久内保证充沛的股票市场资产。

委员才会随时准备好根据农业和股票市场的转型情况变动其缩短不动产负债表需求量的作法的任何细微。

发布一新闻才会要点

#1 有关大萧条难题，里德两次提及“much too high”，回应中才会一新用到的“attentive”亦申明了大萧条的致使性，高风险不动产在里德蹦出一新“much too high”便吓得不轻，应声下行。

The labor market is extremely tight， and inflation is much too high．

Inflation is much too high， and we understand the hardship it is causing．

劳工产品极其不稳，通货膨胀不下太低了。

通货膨胀不下太低了，我们理解它所所致的紧迫。

#2 有关75bp加息，里德抑制了产品的顾虑，确切坚称委员才会未能重一新考虑75bp倾斜度的加息，这也是发布一新闻才会对高风险不动产不可或缺的热忱有感于；也。产品借由75bp的驳斥而舞动起了鸽派朝天。

There is a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis point increases should be on the table at the next couple of meetings．

75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering．

委员才会普遍相信在接下来的几次才联席会议上应该加息50个----。

75个----的加息不是委员才会悄悄积极重一新考虑的难题。

#3 有关澳大利亚农业的供需难题，里德的论述一以贯之，确切对此联储无力受到影响用水口，联储将俄乌事件和东亚的风控视为自己无力支配的结构上因素，而因此只能具体内容“期望”。

Our tools don‘t work on supply shocks， our tools work on demand……there is a job to do on demand．

我们的工具箱未应对供给冲击，我们的工具箱是针对农业期望的．．．．．．，针对期望我们有很多管理工作要好好。

#4 联储是怎样重一新考虑现有的供需平衡难题的？里德给出一新了一个确切的量化和分析方法框架，即军职填补不下及贝弗里威曲线。里德相信，未能来失业者产品的参与不下才会逐步提升，但是失业者人数高企才会回落，进而加剧失业不下用到小幅向上。同期的劳工供给以及回落的农业（雇佣期望）将逐步减低军职填补不下，进而减低薪资和大萧条受压，使得农业之后返回一个平衡状态，达致着陆器。

I would say that I expect and committee members generally expect that we will get additional participation， so people will be coming back into the labor force， we he seen that particularly among prime age people， and that will of course tend to hold the unemployment rate up a little bit． I would expect though that job creation will slow， job creation has been at more than a half million per month in recent months， very very strong， particularly for this stage of the economy． And so we think with fiscal policy less supportive， monetary policy less supportive we think job creation will slow as well．

我一心说的是，我预计，委员才会的成员们也普遍预计，劳动参与不下才会提升，所以人们将返回劳工四支中才会，我们已经看见，除此以外是在壮龄人中才会，这当然才会使失业不下飙升一点。但我预料，失业者岗位（非农）的创造将回落，近几个月底来，非农每月底超过50万，十分十分较弱，除此以外是对于农业的这个过渡阶段而言。因此，我们相信随着财政政策的背书进一步减弱，中央银行的背书进一步减弱，我们相信失业者创造也才会回落。

……more people coming back in， we like to think that supply and demand will come back into balance， and that therefore， wage inflation will moderate to still high levels of wage increases， but ones that are more consistent with 2 percent inflation．

．．．．．．很多人回归了失业者岗位，我们相信用水和期望将趋于稳定平衡，因此，薪酬大萧条将缓和至即便如此相对偏高的高企程度，但与2%的大萧条不下极其相反。

there is a path by which we would be able to he demand moderate in the labor market， and he therefore vacancies come down without unemployment going up because vacancies are at such a extraordinarily high level， they are 1.9 vacancies for every unemployed person， 11 and a half million vacancies， six million unemployed people．

有一条道路，我们将能而政府劳工产品的期望使之极其好斗，并推低军职填补不下而不引发失业不下的飙升，因为军职填补位处十分高的程度，每一个失业者并不相同1.9个军职填补，有1150万的军职填补，600万的失业者。

In principle， it seems as though by moderating demand， we could see vacancies come down， and as a result， they could come down fairly significantly， and I think put supply and demand closer together than they are at least， and that would give us a chance to he lower， to get inflation， wages down， and get inflation down， without hing to slow the economy and he a recession， and he unemployment rise materially． There is a path to that．

并不一定，无论如何通过缓和期望，我们可以看见军职填补不下的升高……大幅增加升高，我相信倘若我们使用水和期望大概比今天更吻合，这将使我们有良机减低……使通货膨胀，薪酬升高，而不所致农业的回落，用到走到下坡，使失业不下大幅增加飙升。是有这么该线可走到的。

One is， households and businesses are in strong financial shape， you are looking at excess sings on balance sheets， excess in the sense that they are substantially larger than the prior trend， businesses are in good financial shape． The labor market is very very strong， and so it doesn‘t seem to be anywhere close to a downturn．

只能指出一新的是，大家庭和跨国企业的公司财务较好，我们能看见的是商业管理机构部门不动产负债表上的多于储蓄，多于的解作是它们比以前的趋势要几倍比，跨国企业的公司财务较好。劳工产品十分十分较弱，因此，我们看起来东北方农业下行还很几倍。

#5 对于农业走到下坡，里德现有相信概不下太低。

And the labor market， if you look at the labor market for people who are out of work and looking， there are lots of job opportunities， for wages are moving up， and at rates that hen‘t been seen in a long time． It is a good time to be a worker looking to either change jobs or get a wage increase in your current job． It’s a strong economy． Nothing about it suggests that it‘s close to or vulnerable to a recession．

As I said， I think we he a good chance to restore price stability without a recession， without a severe downturn and without materially higher unemployment．

一心到劳工产品，如果你看一下失业不下和在找管理工作的人，有很多管理工作良机，因为薪酬悄悄飙升，而且是在很长很久内没看见的飙升飞行速度。对于职工而言今天是一个较好的荣光，换管理工作薪金都是如此。农业较强，没任何迹象说明它吻合走到下坡。

正如我所说的，我相信我们有一个较好的良机来趋于稳定商品价格稳定，而不遭致农业走到下坡，不才会用到致使的农业下行，也不才会用到重大突破的高失业不下。

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